The iron ore negotiation of year will pull open heavy curtain at next month, yesterday, "The 8th China is steely 2008 seminar of raw material international " hold in Qingdao. Home has nearly 600 steely enterprises and iron ore supplier to attend, need and need develop, force develop and fresh water river valley are collective however and absent. Analytic personage points out, the iron ore of the manner of 3 big mine is adumbrative next year negotiates complicated and confusing.
In steel assist secretary-general Chan Shanghua expresses on the meeting, next year strive holds all entrance ore deposit same price, want to eliminate the price difference between Asia and Europe, turn round long assist the situation that mine and price of mine of merchandise on hand differ. Both sides of iron ore supply and demand produces changeover, already entered buyer's market at present.
In steel assist the newest statistic that offers yesterday shows, 1-9 month, output of our country crude steel grows 6.22% only compared to the same period, add fast reduced 11.39 percent compared to the same period. Among them crude steel output will fall compared to the same period September 9.1% , deduct exit, volume of supply of resource of domestic crude steel drops compared to the same period 15.9% .
Iron ore price or continue low
Since October, enterprise of domestic mainstream iron and steel announces mass reduction in production in succession, a few otherer small-sized civilian battalion enterprise even already stop production. Calculate by dimensions of reduction of output, demand of iron ore of four quarters whole nation is total will decrease than 3 quarters 14 million - 15 million tons.
Demand decreases to also bring about price of near future iron ore to fall greatly. Data shows, the near future imports iron ore spot price to continue to glide, clinch a deal the quantity is almost 0. Spot market mine of 63.5% India pink C.I.F already dropped to 70-73 dollar / ton, than March 2008 apogee drops 75% .
Combine gauze analyst Hu Kai to forecast, the situation that market of iron ore of four quarters China begs for be more than will be more apparent, iron ore price still has continue small possibility. He predicts, next year long-term agreement price will drop 30% , and Brazilian mine price drops 25% the left and right sides.
The consideration changes mechanism of iron ore negotiation
At present Chinese steel look forward to asks depreciating voice is very loud. Before this before long production manages communication in in-house conference, in steel assist express, below current economic situation, the iron ore 2009 should depreciate. Chan Shanghua expresses, china should learn Japan, should not execute long assist valence and price of merchandise on hand two kinds of prices, in addition, the price is with FOB accurate, should not consider marine cost.
Chan Shanghua expresses, mechanism of iron ore negotiation needs a change. Before this, river valley of Brazilian fresh water already destroyed the negotiation mechanism that fixes a price one year, at present both sides of need supply and demand undertakes deliberative, a year of one price and fair first quarter value are possible. Before this, price of international iron ore already rose 6 years continuously, the accumulative total of Australia and Brazilian ore goes up achieved respectively 410% with 376% .
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